From the regular meeting of the National People's Congress to the Politburo meeting to finalize new trends in future real estate policy


Release time:

2018-08-08

Since mid-to-late July, there have been various policies in the real estate industry. Following the State Council executive meeting's statement that liquidity is reasonable and sufficient, the Politburo meeting clearly stated that it will resolutely curb the rise in housing prices and accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a blacklist of 20 illegal real estate companies and intermediaries, and the Ministry of Natural Resources pushed the land use plan to "increase deposits". In the second half of the year, what are the new trends in real estate policy? What impact will it have on the real estate market? From "de-leveraging" to "stabilizing leverage", monetary policy is neutral and positive. The Politburo meeting mentioned that "the external environment has changed significantly", which is mainly reflected in the fact that there is still great downward pressure on the macro-economy, and the task of stabilizing growth is still grim. It is proposed that "stabilizing employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations" will be the core objectives of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year. Fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment, focusing on tax and fee reductions. In addition, the total gate of the money supply should be kept in place to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity. In connection with the first half of this year, it seems to be overkill to strictly control financial risks and promote deleveraging. In the second half of the year, the financial "deleveraging" will be to "stable leverage" transition, is no longer the pursuit of "deleveraging", but to grasp the strength and rhythm, to promote the real economy leverage steady decline. We believe that the future monetary policy will be neutral and positive, real estate credit funding level has been easing expectations, home purchase loan interest rates will be the probability of a decline. "House price" may be the standard to test the effect of the regulation and control policy. The Politburo meeting pointed directly at the house price, and the wording became very firm and strict, upgrading from "curbing the excessive rise of house price" to "resolutely curbing the rise of house price", which indicates "zero tolerance" for the next rise of house price ". But what measures will be taken to ensure that house prices do not rise? The previous administrative mandatory "price limit" across the board or far water does not quench the near thirst to increase land supply? We believe that: the specific means of control or adhere to the city's policy, to promote the balance of supply and demand, reasonable guidance of expectations, the market order and other four aspects. First, the main tone of the regulatory policy remains unchanged, all regulatory policies will focus on the "housing, not speculation" positioning, "four limits" policy for a long time not to withdraw. In connection with the introduction of a new regulation and control policy in Shenzhen overnight, it involves suspending the purchase of houses by enterprises and restricting the sale of newly purchased commercial housing by households for three years. The real estate regulation and control policies in hot cities will "check and fill gaps", strictly plug policy and regulatory loopholes, and strive to curb investment and speculative housing demand. Second, many ministries and commissions perform their respective duties and work together to improve the pertinence, timeliness and effectiveness of the implementation of regulatory policies. At the end of June, seven ministries and commissions jointly launched a special action to control the chaos in the property market in 30 cities. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a blacklist of 20 illegal real estate companies and intermediaries yesterday, directly pointing to the real estate market chaos such as driving up housing prices, "black intermediaries", covering the market and cherishing sales, and false propaganda. On the same day, the Ministry of Natural Resources also pushed the land use plan to "increase the deposit link", year by year to reduce the number of new construction land approved but not supplied, idle land and disposal of weak areas, and set up a reward and punishment mechanism for the disposal of approved but not supplied and idle land specific tasks. The new land management mechanism lies in "using active increment and tapping stock" to better realize land intensive and efficient development, and alleviate the pressure of land supply in hot cities to a greater extent. Land supply, rental housing, real estate tax and other long-term mechanism measures to speed up the introduction of the Politburo meeting to mention the long-term mechanism of real estate, the wording from "speed up the study of the establishment of a long-term mechanism of real estate" to "speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market long-term mechanism". We believe that specific measures will be accelerated in three aspects: First, the supply of land must be limited. For cities where real estate inventory is still high, the land supply index should be greatly reduced; for cities where real estate inventory is obviously insufficient and housing prices are under pressure. Hot cities should not only increase land supply, but also speed up the pace of land supply. The second is to accelerate the development of the rental housing market. The current rental market is still in its infancy, and there are still gaps in the construction of related systems. Recently, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other cities have successively introduced new rental housing policies to eliminate illegal behaviors such as rent-based sales and disguised sales, and to protect the housing needs of rental groups to a greater extent. Third, it is expected that the real estate tax will have substantial measures within the year. The relevant legislation and even the pilot work are expected to take a big step forward. The impact on the real estate market depends on the specific implementation rules. At present, it will not have a substantial impact on the real estate market. Transferring from Sina Leju

monetary policy neutral positive

Politburo meeting mentioned "significant changes in the external environment", concentrated in the macro-economy there is still greater downward pressure, the task of stabilizing growth is still severe, it is proposed that "stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and stable expectations" will be the core objectives of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year. Fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment, focusing on tax and fee reductions. In addition, the total gate of the money supply should be kept in place to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity. In connection with the first half of this year, it seems to be overkill to strictly control financial risks and promote deleveraging.

And in the second half of the year, the financial "deleveraging" will transition to "stable leverage", is no longer the pursuit of "deleveraging", but to grasp the strength and rhythm, to help the real economy leverage steady decline. We believe that the future monetary policy will be neutral and positive, real estate credit funding level has been easing expectations, home purchase loan interest rates will be the probability of a decline.

"house price" may be the

standard

to test the effect of the regulation and control policy. the politburo meeting pointed directly at the house price, and the wording became very firm and strict, upgrading from "curbing the excessive rise of house price" to "resolutely curbing the rise of house price", indicating "zero tolerance" for the following rise of house price ". But what measures will be taken to ensure that prices do not rise? The previous administrative mandatory "price limit" across the board or far water does not quench the near thirst to increase land supply?

We believe that: the specific means of control or adhere to the city-by-city policy, to promote the balance of supply and demand, reasonable guidance of expectations, rectification of the market order and other four aspects.

One is the main tone of the control policy unchanged, all control policies will focus on the "housing, not speculation" positioning, "four limits" policy for a long time not to withdraw. In connection with the introduction of a new regulation and control policy in Shenzhen overnight, it involves suspending the purchase of houses by enterprises and restricting the sale of newly purchased commercial housing by households for three years. The real estate regulation and control policies in hot cities will "check and fill gaps", strictly plug policy and regulatory loopholes, and strive to curb investment and speculative housing demand.

Second, multiple ministries and commissions perform their duties and work together to improve the pertinence, timeliness and effectiveness of the implementation of regulatory policies. At the end of June, seven ministries and commissions jointly launched a special action to control the chaos in the property market in 30 cities. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a blacklist of 20 illegal real estate companies and intermediaries yesterday, directly pointing to the real estate market chaos such as driving up housing prices, "black intermediaries", covering the market and cherishing sales, and false propaganda. On the same day, the Ministry of Natural Resources also pushed the land use plan to "increase the deposit link", year by year to reduce the number of new construction land approved but not supplied, idle land and disposal of weak areas, and set up a reward and punishment mechanism for the disposal of approved but not supplied and idle land specific tasks. The new land management mechanism lies in "using active increment and tapping stock" to better realize land intensive and efficient development, and alleviate the pressure of land supply in hot cities to a greater extent.

Land supply, rental housing, real estate tax and other long-term mechanism measures to speed up the introduction of

Politburo meeting to mention the long-term mechanism of real estate, the wording from "speed up the study and establishment of a long-term mechanism of real estate" to "speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market". We believe that specific measures will be accelerated in three aspects:

First, the supply of land should be limited. For cities where real estate inventory is still at a high level, the land supply index should be greatly reduced; for real estate inventory It is obviously insufficient and hot cities with high pressure on housing prices should not only increase land supply, but also speed up the pace of land supply.

The second is to accelerate the development of the rental housing market. The current rental market is still in its infancy, and there is still a gap in the construction of related systems. Recently, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other cities have successively introduced new rental housing policies to eliminate illegal behaviors such as rent-based sales and disguised sales, and to protect the housing needs of rental groups to a greater extent.

Third, it is expected that the real estate tax will have substantial measures within the year. The relevant legislation and even the pilot work are expected to take a big step forward. The impact on the real estate market depends on the specific implementation rules. The market constitutes a substantial impact.

transferred from Sina Leju